It’s Oscar time, baby! Here’s your breakdown at most of the major categories and our takes on who should win, who will win, and who was unfairly left out. Odds and momentum have No Coutnry for Old Men prepapared to sweep most of the major awards, except for best actor… Oh, but we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Check out the Full Diagnosis.
N/A
Best Picture
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Deserves a spot on the list – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, Across the Universe
Doesn’t belong – Atonement‘s inclusion here is a real head-scratcher.
Alan’s Take – From this list I’d push for Juno, but would be okay with either Michael Clayton or There Will Be Blood. I know No Country is a heavy favorite, but despite all the things it does well it has a few too many flaws for me to be okay with calling it the best of the year.
Ian’s Take – No Country has been so firmly at the top of this list for so long, I could see the momentum finally giving in for this picture by the award actually gets awarded. That could yield the prize to the second most loved movie of the year, There Will Be Blood, or if both of those movies split the votes like a lot of folk are predicting, we could see a big surprise win with of Michael Clayton emerging out of a no-clear winner situation. Scoff if you will but the thriller’s been picking up a lot of steam in the past two weeks.
Who will win – No Country has all the momentum and the Academy, with possibly only the slow building support of There Will Be Blood getting in its way.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
Joel and Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy –Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman – Juno
Julian Schnabel –The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Deserves a spot on the list – Tim Burton – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, Julie Taymor – Across the Universe
Doesn’t belong – That’s a nice list.
Alan’s Take – For my money Burton, oh wait he’s not nomiated. Schnabel probably won’t get the nod since other this this nomination his film was completely ignored (it didn’t even make the Foreign Language Film category) and although many people like Michael Clayton most of the love has gone to Clooney rather than Gilroy. So in a three-way race between Reitman, the Coen’s, and Anderson I’ll take Reitman for resurrecting the careers of Bateman and Garner and providing the best comedy of the year two years in a row.
Ian’s Take – I could see the fatigued buzz for the Coens in No Country dying out at the last minute for this category too – in which case the winner is definitely my boy Paul Thomas Anderson.
Who will win – The Coen Brothers pulled down the Director’s Guild Award and are the odds on favorite here.
Best Actor
George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Daniel Day Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises
Deserves a spot on the list – Ryan Gosling – Lars and the Real Girl, Christian Bale – Rescue Dawn
Doesn’t belong – Tommy Lee Jones gave a very good performance in an average film.
Alan’s Take – I would love for Depp to win for what is a terrific performance in an under-appreciated film and I can certainly argue that he’s deserving, but there’s that guy from Last of the Mohicans which turned a frightful bore of a film into something truly remarkable.
Ian’s Take – Why even waste valuable syllables discussing this one? The deserved winner is Daniel Day-Lewis.
Who will win – In the surest bet of the night Daniel Day Lewis takes home the Oscar.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie – Away From Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
Laura Linney – The Savages
Ellen Page – Juno
Deserves a spot on the list – Wei Tang – Lust, Caution, Keri Russell – Waitress, Evan Rachel Wood – Across the Universe, Hilary Swank – Freedom Writers
Doesn’t belong – Sorry but a vanity project like Elizabeth 2 just doesn’t warrant a slot.
Alan’s Take – You know if this same selection was in the Best Supporting Actress category I’d call Page a shoe-in. Here though I don’t believe she’s got enough to pull away from the likes of Cotillard and Christie. Linney’s nomiation is one of the few for The Savages which I thought was the type of film the Academy might more strongly embrace.
Ian’s Take – This one’s tricky. Julie Christie or Marion Coitllard might seem like favorites, but I think the fact that they’re both low-profile foreign pics is going to really hurt them. But hey, people love Juno, and Ellen Page is the it-person of the moment. Don’t be surprised if this girl gets her first Oscar the same week she turns legal.
Who will win – Marion Coitllard
Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton
Deserves a spot on the list – Michael Sheen – Music Within, Andy Griffith – Waitress, Ed Sanders – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, Steve Zahn and Jeremy Davies – Rescue Dawn
Doesn’t belong – In a deep category bump both the sentimental favorite of Holbrook and the talented Wilkinson.
Alan’s Take – Michael Sheen gave the best performance of the year in a film almost no one saw, and both Zahn and Davies deserve recognition for their roles as POW’s. They nominated the better film of Casey Affleck’s but not his best performance of the year, that came in Gone Baby Gone. Of those nominated I’d like to see Hoffman win just for the year he’s had (Charlie Wilson’s War, The Savages, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead). Last year the Academy went with the sentimental favorite of Alan Arkin, but, sorry Mr. Holbrook, I don’t seem them doing that for a second year in a row.
Ian’s Take – We all know Javier Bardem is going to win this one – and if he doesn’t, may Anton Chigurh have mercy on the Academy’s souls.
Who will win – Javier Bardem
Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Ruby Dee – American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan – Atonement
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton
Deserves a spot on the list – Emily Mortimer – Lars and the Real Girl, Adrienne Shelly – Waitress, Kelly Macdonald – No Country for Old Men
Doesn’t belong – It’s a nice gesture to give Ruby Dee a nod here, but we had a hard time even remembering her performance. And seriously, where’s all this support for Tilda Swinton coming from?
Alan’s Take – I’ve seen all the nominated perfomances except for Blanchett’s take on Dylan, and Amy Ryan’s perforance is a cut above the rest. The only question is whether the Academy would prefer to give the award to a better known actress in a higher profile film.
Ian’s Take – The Academy folk love Cate Blanchett, but I doubt many of them can get very excited about something as different (though awesome) as the mish-mash Bob Dylan biopic I’m Not There. And though Amy Ryan was an early favorite, the lack of a front-runner in this category is going to give way to the universally lovable Ruby Dee for a role that would be hard not to fall for, even if it’s not that important of one.
Who will win – This is the cateogry where anything can happen.
Animated Film
Deserves a spot on the list – TMNT
Doesn’t belong – Well, it was a pretty weak year for animation.
Alan’s Take – Rats and peguins but no turtles? Sigh. All three of these are fine films, Ratatouille being the most entertaining and Persepolis the most thought provoking. But what are the chances of a philisophical foreign language film winning best animated film?
Ian’s Take – Persepolis could pop up out of nowhere as the hipper choice than either of the kids movies, but Ratatouille is one of the very best reviewed films of the year – and I doubt the Academy has the balls to deprive Pixar of an Oscar two years straight.
Who will win – No way the Academy gives it to a peguin film which isn’t the best of the nominees two years in a row. This one goes to the rat.
Documentary
No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance
Deserves a spot on the list – The King of Kong: A Fistfull of Quarters, Air Guitar Nation
Doesn’t belong – Did we really need three Iraq films?
Alan’s Take – That King of Kong: A Fistfull of Quarters isn’t up for nomination is a travsesty. Not only one of the best documentaries it’s also one of the best flms of the year. I would also have liked to see Air Guitar Nation get a little love as well. The Academy really does need a sense of whimsy!
Ian’s Take – I can see the Academy giving this to Moore as an apology for booing him five years ago when he criticized the war during his Bowling for Columbine acceptance speech; but I wonder how Mikey will feel about stealing The King of Kong‘s crown.
Who will win – With the vote splitting the three Iraq themed films it looks like a cake walk for Michael Moore (unless the Academy gets afraid of his acceptance speech).
Foreign Language Film
Deserves a spot on the list – Lust, Caution, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Doesn’t belong – Hard to say as none of these films have made it out our way.
Alan’s Take – Wait a minute. Shnobel gets a nod for Best Director but his film isn’t even nominated in the Foreign Language category??? And where’s the love for Lust, Caution, which is one of the best, if not the best, film of Ang Lee‘s career? For more on the “reasoning” behind these snubs read this.
Ian’s Take – Because of the sheer idiocy of Oscar rules, neither Diving Bell, Lust, Caution or the universally praised and then forgotten The Host were even eligible for this award. And thanks to the genius policy, I’ve seen not one of these films. So . . . uh . . . whatever.
Who will win – ???
Go here for the full list of nominees